其 人Who he is

琥 珀

公共管理硕士 · 德麦国际专著第 96 号《股票探幽》作者
Hupo · MPA · Author of Gupiao Tanyou, Demai International Press No. 96
SDE 学员 · 金融理论 · 证券市场 · 科学方法
SDE trainee · Financial theory · Securities markets · Method
What has no field is what needs asking
琥珀
要问的那件事,恰好是没有被设字段的那一件
简 述In brief

自 述喜欢从书页深处打捞思想,在文字里安放星光,也在资本潮汐中辨认人性与周期。以 SDE 本体论观照万象,于差异中见生成,于碰撞处寻新知,愿让理性长出诗意,让认知成为照亮人生的一束光。

In his own wordsDrawn to dredging thought from deep in the page, to setting starlight in words, and to reading human nature and the cycle in the tides of capital. Looking at all things through SDE ontology — genesis in difference, new knowledge where fields collide — hoping that reason may grow a poetics, and that understanding becomes a light thrown across a life.

以「琥珀」署名写作。第一部专著《股票探幽》围绕同一个对象——股票——提出十个彼此独立的问题,并为每一个问题构造一个可以被公开数据推翻的读数。写法上有一条不太讨喜的纪律:把不利于自己的检验结果原样留在正文里。书中十次检验,一次全过,四次被作者事先登记的阈值或安慰剂判负,两次未执行;十个读数里有四个在现行记录体系中根本估不出来,一个被自己写下的作废条款废掉。

这些问题不从金融学内部找答案。三十门与金融无关的学问被请进来——矿物学、校勘学、树轮气候学、滴定终点与等当点、条件等色、癌症筛查流行病学、金属疲劳、验收抽样、人道主义排雷、法医学的死亡判准——不是拿它们打比方,而是让它们各自的判据互相顶撞,撞出一个金融学自己说不出的落点。

Writing under the name Hupo. The first monograph, Gupiao Tanyou, puts ten independent questions to a single object — the stock — and builds for each a reading that public data could refute. One discipline runs through it: unfavourable results are kept in the text as they stand. Of ten tests, one passed, four were struck down by the author's own preregistered thresholds or placebo cuts, and two were never run; four of the ten readings turn out to be unmeasurable in any existing record system.

The answers are not sought inside finance. Thirty distant fields are brought in — mineralogy, textual criticism, dendroclimatology, titrimetry, metamerism, cancer-screening epidemiology, metal fatigue, acceptance sampling, humanitarian demining, forensic criteria of death — not as metaphors, but so that their own standards of judgement can collide.

著 作Books
《股票探幽》封面
德麦国际出版社 · 专著第 96 号
Demai International Press · Monograph No. 96

股票探幽 十个问题,十个读数 Ten Questions, Ten Readings

十次可以失败的检验 · 三部十章

Ten tests allowed to fail · Three parts, ten chapters

关于股票,我们拥有大量正确而无用的知识。凡是能被替代的,都不是它之所以是它的那一样。

Most of what we know about stocks is correct and useless. Whatever can be replaced is not what makes it what it is.

295 页 · 约 22 万汉字 · ISBN 979-8-90690-022-7
文 章Papers

《股票探幽》之外的文章收在 文章一栏。同一条纪律照旧:每一篇都要给出一个能被公开数据推翻的落点,检验不利就把不利原样留下;凡是已经有人占住的地方,先把占住它的人请进来,再说自己还剩什么。

目前三篇,都与本书十章逐章核过分界:《股票不是公司的一小块》(制度临界刻度)、《股票是什么?》(股权孔位论)、《不是低估,而是「重编目」》(结构—分类相差迁徙)。

Papers written outside the monograph are collected in Papers, under the same rule: every piece must offer something public data could refute, and unfavourable results stay as they are. Three so far, each demarcated chapter by chapter against the book.